Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 29

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 32

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::clean() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 33

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanArray() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 463

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanArray() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 464

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanArray() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 465

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanArray() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 466

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanArray() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 467

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanArray() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 468

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 35

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 38

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 39

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 46

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 47

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 50

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 53

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 54

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 57

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php on line 58

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFactory::getApplication() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/index.php on line 34

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class JObject in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/base/object.php on line 57

Strict Standards: Non-static method JApplication::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/factory.php on line 46

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JApplicationHelper::getClientInfo() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/application/application.php on line 132

Strict Standards: Declaration of JSite::getRouter() should be compatible with & JApplication::getRouter($name = NULL, $options = Array) in /home/www2voce/public_html/includes/application.php on line 377

Strict Standards: Declaration of JSite::getPathWay() should be compatible with & JApplication::getPathway($name = NULL, $options = Array) in /home/www2voce/public_html/includes/application.php on line 377

Strict Standards: Declaration of JSite::getMenu() should be compatible with & JApplication::getMenu($name = NULL, $options = Array) in /home/www2voce/public_html/includes/application.php on line 377

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/registry/registry.php on line 19

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Declaration of JSession::set() should be compatible with JObject::set($property, $value = NULL) in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/session/session.php on line 737

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/session/session.php on line 19

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Declaration of JSessionStorageNone::register() should be compatible with JSessionStorage::register($options = Array) in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/session/storage/none.php on line 38

Warning: session_start(): Cannot send session cookie - headers already sent by (output started at /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php:29) in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/session/session.php on line 423

Warning: session_start(): Cannot send session cache limiter - headers already sent (output started at /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php:29) in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/session/session.php on line 423

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/import.php:29) in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/session/session.php on line 426

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/parameter.php on line 21

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Declaration of JRegistryFormatINI::objectToString() should be compatible with JRegistryFormat::objectToString(&$object) in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/registry/format/ini.php on line 281

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::importPlugin() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/index.php on line 44

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 92

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 97

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JDispatcher::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/plugins/system/jxtended.php on line 51

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 97

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class JPlugin in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/plugin.php on line 75

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Declaration of JEvent::update() should be compatible with JObserver::update() in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/event/event.php on line 29

Strict Standards: Non-static method JDispatcher::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 140

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 97

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFactory::getApplication() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/plugins/system/nonumberelements.php on line 18

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::getCmd() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/plugins/system/nonumberelements.php on line 27

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::getVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 255

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 151

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFilterInput::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 577

Strict Standards: Non-static method JDispatcher::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 140

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::getPlugin() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 147

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 41

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 97

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JDispatcher::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 140

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::getPlugin() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 147

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 41

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 97

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class CMSDb in /home/www2voce/public_html/components/libraries/cmslib/spframework.php on line 240

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JDispatcher::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 140

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 97

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JDispatcher::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 140

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::getPlugin() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 147

Strict Standards: Non-static method JPluginHelper::_load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/plugin/helper.php on line 41

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/cache/cache.php on line 19

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Declaration of JCacheStorage::get() should be compatible with JObject::get($property, $default = NULL) in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/cache/storage.php on line 173

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JSite::getMenu() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/components/com_content/router.php on line 120

Strict Standards: Non-static method JApplication::getMenu() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/includes/application.php on line 345

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JMenu::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/application/application.php on line 720

Strict Standards: Non-static method JError::isError() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/application/application.php on line 721

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::getInt() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/index.php on line 58

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::getVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 179

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 134

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFilterInput::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 577

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::getVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/components/libraries/cmslib/helper/url.php on line 74

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 134

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFilterInput::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 577

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::getWord() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/components/com_jomcomment/plugins/system.php on line 60

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::getVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 236

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 134

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFilterInput::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 577

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/document/document.php on line 19

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Declaration of JDocumentHTML::setBuffer() should be compatible with JDocument::setBuffer($content) in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/document/html/html.php on line 394

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::getCmd() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/index.php on line 70

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::getVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 255

Strict Standards: Non-static method JRequest::_cleanVar() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 134

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFilterInput::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/request.php on line 577

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186
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Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Declaration of ContentController::display() should be compatible with JController::display($cachable = false) in /home/www2voce/public_html/components/com_content/controller.php on line 28

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method JHTMLBehavior::caption() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html.php on line 91

Strict Standards: Non-static method JHTML::script() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html/behavior.php on line 63

Strict Standards: Non-static method JHTML::_() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html.php on line 172

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method JHTMLBehavior::mootools() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html.php on line 91

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFactory::getConfig() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html/behavior.php on line 46

Strict Standards: Non-static method JHTML::script() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html/behavior.php on line 56

Strict Standards: Non-static method JURI::root() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html.php on line 176

Strict Standards: Non-static method JURI::base() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/uri.php on line 276

Strict Standards: Non-static method JURI::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/environment/uri.php on line 276

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFactory::getDocument() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html.php on line 179

Strict Standards: Non-static method JURI::root() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html.php on line 176

Strict Standards: Non-static method JFactory::getDocument() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/html/html.php on line 179

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Declaration of JCacheView::get() should be compatible with JCache::get($id, $group = NULL) in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/cache/handler/view.php on line 150

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::load() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 161

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 138

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JSite::getMenu() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/components/com_content/router.php on line 19

Strict Standards: Non-static method JApplication::getMenu() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/includes/application.php on line 345

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JMenu::getInstance() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/application/application.php on line 720

Strict Standards: Non-static method JError::isError() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/joomla/application/application.php on line 721

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::import() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 186

Strict Standards: Non-static method JLoader::register() should not be called statically in /home/www2voce/public_html/libraries/loader.php on line 71

Edición 330

Bono


“No puedo poner a cinco lobos
y a una oveja a votar qué van a cenar”

Larry Flynt.

 

El calendario político ordena que a mediados de este año las urnas vuelvan a convocar a los mexicanos, para ejercer su derecho al voto y colectivamente tomen una nueva decisión en torno a quiénes y bajo qué condiciones serán gobernados. Por esta y muchas razones, las elecciones de junio próximo deberán ser parte sustantiva de la agenda política mexicana; pero el que realmente lo sean depende mucho de la calidad de los candidatos, temas y compromisos involucrados.

Calendario-de-elecciones-en-Mexico-2015


El 2015 se reconoce por ser un año electoral. De nuevo vienen los millones de spots y la propaganda. Y aunque es cierto que pocos se emocionan con una elección intermedia, la de este año es importante por varias razones:

1.- Es la primera elección organizada por el Instituto Nacional Electoral, en la que aplican algunas reglas que fueron aprobadas en la reforma política (candidaturas independientes, reelección para presidentes municipales y diputados, tanto locales como federales, que se elijan en 2015).

2- Es lo más cercano a un plebiscito a la administración gobernante. Y en este caso, también a la situación del país post- Ayotzinapa y autodefensas.

3- Habrá elecciones locales que involucran a más del 60% del padrón electoral (lo que podría implicar mayor participación).

4- Posiciona a los partidos de cara a la elección presidencial de 2018 (territorialmente y en cuanto a posibles aspirantes).

5- Hay tres nuevos partidos políticos (Morena, Humanista, Encuentro Social) y nuevas reglas de supervivencia (el mínimo para mantener el registro subió de 2 a 3% de la votación, lo cual será prueba de supervivencia para los partidos pequeños).

6- Se aprobó el presupuesto más grande en la historia electoral de nuestro país: 5 mil 700 millones de pesos.

Calendario electoral: fechas a tomar en cuenta
● 10 de enero al 18 de febrero: Precampañas
● 22 al 29 de marzo: Registro de candidaturas
● 22 marzo al 7 de junio de 2015: Posibilidad de sustitución de candidaturas
● 5 de abril al 7 de junio: Campañas electorales
● 7 de junio: Elección


*M.R. Diputados por mayoría relativa.
*R.P. Diputados por representación proporcional.

Fuente: Instituto Nacional Electoral

Puntos clave

Aunque siempre hay sorpresas, en una elección intermedia es especialmente importante el voto duro. ¿Por qué? Históricamente, y no sólo en México, los independientes y los indecisos no suelen ir a las urnas en la proporción que lo hacen en las elecciones presidenciales, lo que implica que tenga más peso el voto de quienes tienen una preferencia partidista definida y que regularmente votan. En las elecciones presidenciales importan los candidatos y sus propuestas; en las intermedias impera la ideología partidista.

 

IntenciónVoto

 

Por lo tanto, para saber cómo le irá a un partido en determinada elección, el primer indicador al que hay que recurrir es su desempeño en elecciones pasadas. En este caso, los mejores puntos de comparación son los resultados en 2009, 2003 y 1997, todo de elecciones intermedias (se excluyen las presidenciales precisamente para quitar el efecto de los candidatos). A partir de ellos se elaboró un gráfico que muestra los rangos de apoyo que han tenido los partidos políticos que participaron en alguna de esas elecciones. Tales rangos van del porcentaje más bajo al más alto obtenido en las tres elecciones intermedias previas. A tales rangos se agregó un punto, tomado de la más reciente encuesta sobre preferencias partidistas (Parametría-El Financiero, 20 de enero), para ubicar cómo se va perfilando cada partido respecto a su rango.

Es importante notar que hay partidos de rango amplio (PRI,PRD) y partidos más constantes (PAN,PT). Por ejemplo, el rango del PRI va de 38% (1997) a 23% (2003), y según la encuesta más reciente, la intención del voto se sitúa en 31%, casi la mitad del rango.


Elecciones-2015La fragmentación de la izquierda

La gráfica muestra claramente que la salida de AMLO y sus simpatizantes de las filas del PRD para formar otro partido, implica un juego de suma cero en cuanto a los votos totales de la izquierda en una elección intermedia. En otras palabras, la gran mayoría de los votos que reciba Morena en 2015 procederán de personas que votaron por el PRD en elecciones pasadas. El PRD, con 12%, se encuentra en el límite inferior de su rango y aun sumando el 10% de Morena se encontraría dentro del mismo. Esta división del voto, aunada a la posible desaparición del PT y/o Movimiento Ciudadano (hay que recordar que AMLO hizo campaña con ambos en 2009 para mantener sus ingresos) implicaría una reducción en la representación general de la izquierda.


La Narrativa

Si bien el punto de partida de la elección lo constituyen los rangos mostrados arriba, la campaña y su narrativa modificarían en cierta medida las preferencias del electorado hasta el día de su elección. Por lo mismo, durante el proceso electoral será importante ver lo siguiente:

● Unidad/disciplina intra-partidista: usualmente las contiendas internas debilitan al partido (al potenciar escisiones) y a su imagen frente al electorado.
● Qué temas enfatiza cada partido (seguridad, economía, políticas sociales), los temas que se posicionan en la agenda pública y si son positivos o negativos para el partido gobernante.
● En el caso de los partidos pequeños, si se unen a la narrativa general o apuestan a nichos específicos del electorado.
● El impacto de grupos, eventos e individuos ajenos a los partidos pero que pueden tener un impacto en posicionar temas en la agenda pública (los padres de los 43 normalistas, una eventual campaña del voto nulo, las redes sociales, algún evento que afecte al Gobierno Federal o a alguno de los partidos en específico).
● La capacidad de algún partido, campaña o individuo para captar los votos del descontento ante políticas públicas específicas (i.e. reforma energética, reforma fiscal) o ante la situación educativa o de seguridad.
● Los niveles de popularidad presidencial y de crecimiento económico (otro buen indicador es el índice de confianza del consumidor del INEGI).

El impacto de lo local

La concurrencia de elecciones locales y federales plantea un escenario relativamente diferente a 2009, 2003 y 1997. Especialmente en los estados donde se elige gobernador, el contar con un buen candidato puede ayudar a sumar votos a nivel federal.

 

Financiamiento

 

De igual manera, será importante detectar focos rojos a nivel local, donde pueda dificultarse la elección por cuestiones de seguridad (municipios de Michoacán o Guerrero).


Votar siendo vetado, ¿y la libertad?

imagesSi poder ser votado es, en teoría, la expresión democrática por excelencia de nuestra libertad ciudadana, condicionarla a la pertenencia de un partido, la somete a una pérdida previa de la libertad. Es como si nuestro derecho a buscar la felicidad se condicionase a la membresía de un club o de un sindicato. La inteligencia y la libertad individuales, pasadas por el torrente de los partidos, no tardan en producir una mezcla sumisa, homogénea e interesada. Las libertades individuales se convierten en coros que loan los líderes a cambio del derecho a ser votado.

En la actualidad mexicana dos fuerzas terribles y convergentes amenazan la libertad: la corrupción y el crimen. De este infierno no hay salida fácil pues ambas hunden sus raíces en la historia.

Estoy seguro que la respuesta vendrá de decenas de millones de personas que trabajan honradamente, conservando la alianza natural del respeto a la palabra y a la vida misma. Cuánta razón tiene Salman Rushdie en eso de “conservar una de las cosas que nos hacen humanos: la libertad de la palabra”.


Pregúntese

Ni qué dudar, la incertidumbre es el signo más evidente en la coyuntura actual. En el centro de la batalla ningún otro tema significa tanto como el carácter que habrá de adoptar la incipiente democracia mexicana y el papel del votante en la construcción del nuevo orden político.

Ahora bien, pregúntese el lector si aún estima este México que, de una u otra manera, ha estado con nosotros por décadas: un México donde la movilidad social es difícil y la justicia inalcanzable, donde los derechos humanos son letra muerta. Pregúntese qué impacto tendrá el llamado electoral sobre los deudos del gobierno, las fuerzas políticas y la sociedad en su conjunto.

Las elecciones están muy cerca, nos toca decidir si habremos de salir al encuentro de ese Estado que, por mucho tiempo, hemos buscado.



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